Indianapolis: Predicted finish, 12-4, Division champions
The Colts endured a lot of drama at the beginning of the preseason. Peyton Manning allegedly was not too happy with the way things were being run around camp. But I don't see Manning, a true professional, letting things like that get in the way of leading the Colts on another playoff run. Manning leads a passing game that goes through Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Wayne should continue to develop as a premier option in this league. Clark is the sure-handed tight end that is always a viable option in the middle of the field. The biggest question in the passing game is Anthony Gonzalez. Can he continue to be a reliable replacement for Marvin Harrison? If he can, the Colts offense should have the same rhythm it has had in the past. Adding Donald Brown to be a productive runner and spell Joseph Addai only contributes to the depth of this team. The defense needs to continue progressing as runstoppers. Known as too weak to defend the run before their Super Bowl run, the question still lingers as to whether the Colts can stop a smashmouth run game in the 4th quarter, particularly the two-headed running attack of the Titans. If they can, they should be able to take the division. Their pass defense, led by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, is certainly good enough to get the job done. They get to the quarterback quickly, and that makes the job a lot easier on the secondary. Look for Anthony Gonzalez and the run defense to be the keys, and look for the Colts to reclaim the division.
Tennessee: Predicted finish, 9-7, Wild Card birth
The Titans posted the league's best record in the regular season last year, and then laid an egg against the Ravens in the playoffs. Looking to build on last season's great regular season, Chris Johnson leads an outstanding running game that is complimented by the short yardage back, LenDale White. Johnson is a dynamic runner and one of the fastes players in the league, but it is still questioned whether he can build on his tremendous last season. Although lots of running backs have dips in their second year, Johnson should be okay, in large part because he has a compliment. White is a bruiser that is relied upon in short yardage situations, and is used to keep Johnson's fast legs fresh. As long as Coach Jeff Fisher uses them properly, they should continue to develop and be successful. The pass game is led by journeyman Kerry Collins, a smart quarterback who tends to not make dumb throws. They tried to improve their weak receiving lineup by signing Nate Washington, a player with explosive potential. Nevertheless, the receiving corps remains a big question mark. The defense must make due without Albert Haynesworth, who was incredibly overpaid by the Redskins this offseason. Keith Bulluck is a tackling machine, and an underrated outside linebacker. Their defense should still be in the upper echelon of the league. In the end, I pick them to finish 9-7 not because they are worse than last year, but because last year was a bit of a fluke for them. Everything seemed to go right for the Titans during the '08 regular season, and I just don't think they are a premier team. They are, however, a team that should make the playoffs again and have a shot at avenging last year's defeat.
Houston: Predicted finish, 8-8, 3rd in division
I still don't know what to make of the Texans. They have a talented quarterback in Matt Schaub, one of the most talented players in the NFL in Andre Johnson, and an explosive running back in Steve Slaton. That should be enough offensive talent to compete, even with some question marks on their defense. And yet the Texans always seem to find a way to lose. They lost in unthinkable ways last year, and that has me uneasy about picking them to win with any regularity. I really do like Schaub if he can stay healthy. That is partially because he has Johnson to throw to, who has to be considered one of the top 3 wideouts in the league. The man has phenomenal talent, and should only get better. Slaton is more of a question mark, but I think he will have a decent season, if not equaling his great rookie campaign. The defense needs to answer some questions, and Mario Williams has to continue dominating if they are going to be successful. The Texans, who were considered unquestionably foolish for drafting Williams instead of Reggie Bush, would be lost without him on defense. In the end, the Texans still aren't mature enough to be a playoff team, but I do see them as a team to be reckoned with in the future.
Jacksonville: Predicted finish, 6-10, last in division
Some people are picking the Jaguars as the surprise division winners, presumably based on the talent of Maurice Jones-Drew and the assumption that Garrard will have a breakout year. I'm not buying them this year. The defense is aging, and not as vaunted as it once was.
The offensive line is suspect in pass protection. And I'm still not sold on Garrard as a QB, or the receivers being true threats. J-D will try and take the team on his back without Fred Taylor, but he can only do so much. In the end, it won't be a season to remember for Jacksonville.
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